So I wanted to add my two penn’orth to the iPad debate that is currently raging. You’ve got the Apple fanboys on one side who think that the iPad represents the technological equivalent of the second coming of Christ and the Apple haters on the other who think that it is an oversized iPhone with no practical application in people’s lives.
Since the actual launch, the Apple fanboys have actually had to temper their appreciation of their device and come up with “solutions” for how you could use the device – but this seems to me a little counter productive – technology should be about solving problems that exist – not creating new ones for our imagination to solve.
However, I’m not going to enter the debate on the technological merits of the iPad – better (and worse) people than I are thrashing it out online and they’ll never agree. (For some of the best of the debate try here – http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-10443604-37.html?tag=rtcol;pop )
Instead I want to approach the question of how successful it might be from a marketing angle.
One of the criticisms levelled at the anti-Apple brigade is that they are ignoring history – “look at the iPod” they say – “everyone said it would fail because it was only compatible with Apple devices/Wasn’t as good as existing MP3 players/Was too expensive etc etc and just look at it now. Then everyone said the same about the iPhone – how it didn’t have 3G or Flash or cut and paste or a decent camera – but look at it now”
And it is hard to argue with the history – Apple have had huge success in the mobile electronics market in the past 10 years and they seem to tap into the consumer desire of the moment every single time.
But there is one fundamental difference here that I think could be pivotal in the relative success or failure of this device.
It all comes down to how people will use the device – publicly or privately.
The thing about the iPod and the iPhone was that they were incredibly public devices. The iPod started it all with the white earphones that were worn like a badge of aspiration by iPod owners – subtly shouting at the world – “look I’m cool, I’ve got an iPod.” The iPhone in turn is a device that is always on public display as people talk, type, watch and interact with it constantly. It is something that you can show off to your friends very easily and conveniently without it even feeling like you are showing off.
And here is where I feel the iPad could fall down. In a category such as this success breeds success. As people observe their friends using their new device, they in turn perceive it to be a must have item. When someone shows them the latest app they just downloaded and how it has improved their lives, they want to have that improvement to their lives as well.
The essence of the iPad however will not get it that sort of public exposure. Everything I have understood about this device is that its most likely application is on the couch AT HOME. And there’s the rub. Even if the early adopters are heading out in their droves to buy them, you will be unlikely to see one in action very often because consumers will be using them mostly at home or maybe for long distance travel.
They won’t be plonking them on the table in the pub along with their keys, they won’t be drinking iPints with them in front of their mates, they won’t be watching 20 minutes of Family Guy next to you on the tube, they won’t be navigating their way across town using the built in GPS – For all of those things they will be using their iPhone (or other Smart phone device).
So you are never going to observe them “improving” their lives with an iPad, you are never going to be envious and feel like you are missing out by not having an iPad and you’re unlikely to have the chance to get hands on one and fall in love with the tactile beautiful user interface which seems to be vital to making people want one.
So that’s my take on it – the iPad – in its current incarnation – is unlikely to see the market domination experienced by iPod and iPhone because it will never achieve that perception of ubiquity that its predecessors did.
That doesn’t mean it won’t be successful in its own way – just as the Mac computers (Desktop and laptop) fill a consumer niche and are very successful in that space, I believe that the iPad will appeal to a group of loyalists who will buy everything they can to do with it, but I believe it will be just one (important) player in a market of personal entertainment/websurfing devices that could explode in the next few years.
I’ve been wrong before though.